Weekly Forex Market Followup (October 31st - November 4th 2011)

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of October 31
^st through November 4
^th The following table lists the key
economic data and other events that came out during the week of
October 30
^th through November 4
^th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the
market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the
affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set
of events. Sunday, October 30
^th 10:45pm NZD Building Consents -17.1% versus last
16.6%. The NZD fell. Monday, October 31
^st 10:16am CHF Retail Sales -0.9% versus 2.3% expected.
The CHF fell. 1:30pm CAD GDP 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The CAD
fell. 10:45pm NZD Labor Cost Index 0.5% versus 0.9% expected. The
NZD fell. Tuesday, November 1
^st 2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.4 versus 51.9
expected. 4:30am AUD Cash Rate 4.50% versus 4.75% expected. 4:30am
AUD RBA Rate Statement noted that, The exchange rate has been very
variable over the past few months, but on the whole has remained at
historically high levels. Over the past year, the board has
maintained a mildly restrictive stance of monetary policy, in view
of its concerns about inflation. The AUD fell. 8:00am GBP
Nationwide HPI 0.4% versus 0.1% expected. 10:30am GBP Manufacturing
PMI 47.4 versus 50.0 expected. 10:30am GBP Preliminary GDP 0.5%
versus 0.4% expected. The GBP fell. 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing
PMI 47.4 versus 52.3 expected. The USD rose. Wednesday, November 2
^nd 1:30am AUD Building Approvals -13.6% versus -4.5%
expected. The AUD rose mildly. 10:30am GBP Construction PMI 53.9
versus 50.2 expected. The GBP was unchanged. 1:15pm USD ADP
Non-Farm Employment Change 110K versus 103K expected. 5:30pm USD
Federal Funds Rate Decision 0.25%, as expected. 5:30pm USD FOMC
Statement noted that, The Committee continues to expect a moderate
pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently
anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually
toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its
dual mandate. 7:15pm USD FOMC Press Conference noted that,
Nonetheless, recent indicators point to continuing weakness in
overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains
elevated. The USD mostly fell. 10:45pm NZD Employment Change 0.2%
versus 0.6% expected. 10:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate 6.6% versus
6.4%, good for NZD fell. Thursday, November 3
^rd 1:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.4% versus 0.5% expected.
The AUD rose. 10:30am GBP Services PMI 51.3 versus 51.9 expected.
The GBP rose. 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 397K versus
402K. 1:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.25% versus 1.50% expected.
2:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference noted that, Based on its regular
economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to
reduce the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. While
inflation has remained elevated and is likely to stay above 2% for
some months to come, inflation rates are expected to decline
further in the course of 2012 to below 2%. At the same time, the
underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be moderate. The
EUR rose. 3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.9 versus 53.9
expected. The USD fell. Friday, November 4
^th 1:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement noted that,
These fiscal issues, together with the ongoing consolidation of
private-sector balance sheets following the financial crisis, mean
that the outlook for growth in many advanced economies remains
subdued. The AUD fell. 12:00pm CAD Employment Change -54.0K versus
20.3K expected. 12:00pm CAD Unemployment Rate 7.3% versus 7.2%
expected. 1:30pm CAD Building Permits -4.9% versus 2.7% expected.
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 80K versus 98K expected.
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 9.0% versus 9.1%. The USD rose. 3:00pm
CAD Ivey PMI 54.4 versus 56.2 expected. The CAD fell. Technical
Recap for the Majors This Week EURUSD: Forecast: LowerActual: Lower
from a 1.4134 open to a 1.3754 close. USDJPY: Forecast: Mildly
HigherActual: Higher from a 75.63 open to a 78.18 close. GBPUSD:
Forecast: LowerActual: Lower from a 1.6120 open to a 1.6020 close.
AUDUSD: Forecast: LowerActual: Lower from a 1.0699 open to a 1.0351
close. USDCAD: Forecast: HigherActual: Higher from a 0.9915 open to
a 1.0182 close. NZDUSD: Forecast: LowerActual: Lower from a 0.8196
open to a 0.7910 close.