Weekly Forex Market Followup (October 31st - November 4th 2011)

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of October 31st
through November 4th The following table lists
the key economic data and other events that came out during the
week of October 30th through November 4th, with release times
displayed for the GMT time zone. The list also indicates how much
each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon
release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs
did after each event or set of events. Sunday, October 30th 10:45pm
NZD Building Consents -17.1% versus last 16.6%. The NZD fell.
Monday, October 31st 10:16am CHF Retail Sales -0.9% versus 2.3%
expected. The CHF fell. 1:30pm CAD GDP 0.3% versus 0.2% expected.
The CAD fell. 10:45pm NZD Labor Cost Index 0.5% versus 0.9%
expected. The NZD fell. Tuesday, November 1st 2:00am CNY
Manufacturing PMI 50.4 versus 51.9 expected. 4:30am AUD Cash Rate
4.50% versus 4.75% expected. 4:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement noted
that, The exchange rate has been very variable over the past few
months, but on the whole has remained at historically high levels.
Over the past year, the board has maintained a mildly restrictive
stance of monetary policy, in view of its concerns about inflation.
The AUD fell. 8:00am GBP Nationwide HPI 0.4% versus 0.1% expected.
10:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 47.4 versus 50.0 expected. 10:30am
GBP Preliminary GDP 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. The GBP fell. 3:00pm
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.4 versus 52.3 expected. The USD rose.
Wednesday, November 2nd 1:30am AUD Building Approvals -13.6% versus
-4.5% expected. The AUD rose mildly. 10:30am GBP Construction PMI
53.9 versus 50.2 expected. The GBP was unchanged. 1:15pm USD ADP
Non-Farm Employment Change 110K versus 103K expected. 5:30pm USD
Federal Funds Rate Decision 0.25%, as expected. 5:30pm USD FOMC
Statement noted that, The Committee continues to expect a moderate
pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently
anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually
toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its
dual mandate. 7:15pm USD FOMC Press Conference noted that,
Nonetheless, recent indicators point to continuing weakness in
overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains
elevated. The USD mostly fell. 10:45pm NZD Employment Change 0.2%
versus 0.6% expected. 10:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate 6.6% versus
6.4%, good for NZD fell. Thursday, November 3rd 1:30am AUD Retail
Sales 0.4% versus 0.5% expected. The AUD rose. 10:30am GBP Services
PMI 51.3 versus 51.9 expected. The GBP rose. 1:30pm USD Weekly
Initial Jobless Claims 397K versus 402K. 1:45pm EUR Minimum Bid
Rate 1.25% versus 1.50% expected. 2:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference
noted that, Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses,
the Governing Council decided to reduce the key ECB interest rates
by 25 basis points. While inflation has remained elevated and is
likely to stay above 2% for some months to come, inflation rates
are expected to decline further in the course of 2012 to below 2%.
At the same time, the underlying pace of monetary expansion
continues to be moderate. The EUR rose. 3:00pm USD ISM
Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.9 versus 53.9 expected. The USD fell.
Friday, November 4th 1:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement noted
that, These fiscal issues, together with the ongoing consolidation
of private-sector balance sheets following the financial crisis,
mean that the outlook for growth in many advanced economies remains
subdued. The AUD fell. 12:00pm CAD Employment Change -54.0K versus
20.3K expected. 12:00pm CAD Unemployment Rate 7.3% versus 7.2%
expected. 1:30pm CAD Building Permits -4.9% versus 2.7% expected.
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 80K versus 98K expected.
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 9.0% versus 9.1%. The USD rose. 3:00pm
CAD Ivey PMI 54.4 versus 56.2 expected. The CAD fell. Technical
Recap for the Majors This Week EURUSD: Forecast: LowerActual: Lower
from a 1.4134 open to a 1.3754 close. USDJPY: Forecast: Mildly
HigherActual: Higher from a 75.63 open to a 78.18 close. GBPUSD:
Forecast: LowerActual: Lower from a 1.6120 open to a 1.6020 close.
AUDUSD: Forecast: LowerActual: Lower from a 1.0699 open to a 1.0351
close. USDCAD: Forecast: HigherActual: Higher from a 0.9915 open to
a 1.0182 close. NZDUSD: Forecast: LowerActual: Lower from a 0.8196
open to a 0.7910 close.